The Challenge
A UK household FMCG brand ran its annual planning cycle on ROAS comparisons that favoured performance channels while leaving upper-funnel brand media justified only by reach curves and creative awards. Under pressure to optimise efficiency, the CFO proposed to cut brand media by a third and those funds into tactical promotions and retail media channels.
Although the marketing team believed the brand’s steady base of sales owed its stability to years of consistent brand building, with their mature and stable MMM showing a large baseline holding firm through price rises and competitor activity, they lacked the empirical framework to prove it.
The business required an analytics framework to quantify the precise contribution of historical advertising and accumulated brand equity to long-term baseline sales before the next planning cycle.
The Solution
Years of advertising history and tracked brand metrics were linked to the evolution of the MMM baseline, measuring how much of the brand’s underlying demand traced back to its accumulated brand equity.
A substantial share of the baseline proved attributable to historical advertising and the brand strength it had built, with awareness and quality measures doing most of the measurable work. The analysis also traced how brand media kept feeding those metrics over time, connecting the current budget line under threat to the base it would eventually strengthen.
Expressed as a multiplier on short-term ROAS, the long-term contribution gave brand media a complete return figure directly comparable with the performance channels it competed against for budget.
The Impact
Presented with a quantified account of what brand media builds, the CFO accepted total return as the planning currency, and the following year’s budget held brand investment at its existing level with a review clause tied to the ongoing measurement.
Planning conversations changed shape beyond the single decision, with media channels now evaluated on an integrated view of short-term conversions and long-term baseline expansion. Tactical promotions and retail media remain funded based on immediate returns, while brand media funding is secured by the base it actively sustains through an annualised refresh cycle.
The long-term multiplier is now refreshed annually alongside the MMM, keeping the budget conversation anchored to current evidence as the brand’s market moves.
Key Takeaways
- A Baseline Explained – Proved that a substantial share of underlying demand traced back to historical advertising and the accumulated brand strength it built over time.
- Comparable Returns – Developed a long-term multiplier on short-term ROAS to place brand media and performance channels on the same economic planning currency.
- A Budget Cut Withdrawn – Replaced subjective beliefs with quantified evidence during the budget round, maintaining brand investment at its full existing operating level.
- Evidence on a Cycle– Integrated the multiplier calculations into an annual refresh cadence to keep long-term contributions aligned with moving market realities.
Tools and Techniques
- Brand equity evaluation
- Structural Equation Modelling – mapping directional causal paths directly onto the isolated MMM sales baseline
- Long-term ROAS multiplier estimation – calculating total financial returns by blending immediate conversions with lagging baseline increments
- Data Integration – aggregating multi-year media spend timelines, promotional calendars, and tracking data
- R – data handling and structural time-series modelling
- Looker Studio – interactive reporting for senior stakeholders and planning teams
Related services
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